Can we calculate the risk of vascular disease in people with MS better?
About the project
Research has shown co-existing health conditions, or co-morbidities, are common in people with MS. In particular blood vessel conditions like high blood pressure and cholesterol. These conditions in general aren’t treated adequately in people with MS, and they can increase the risk of events like a heart attack or stroke, and research has shown they could also worsen disability progression.
In practice, a number of vascular (blood vessel) risk calculators can be used to work out a person’s risk of vascular conditions like heart disease, coronary artery disease, heart attack or stroke. And clinicians use this to advise what type of treatment might be needed. But a calculator developed in people without MS may not work well in people with MS, as they have unique risk factors. The calculator could potentially over or underestimate the risk.
Dr Palladino and his team plan to test how well four commonly used vascular risk calculators perform in people with MS. To do this they’ll look at historical medical records of people with MS. They’ll enter their data into the four risk calculators, and see whether the risk predicted was correct according to their medical records. As a comparison, they will also do this with data from people without MS.
If the predictions of vascular conditions are not accurate, they’ll work on improving and recalibrating the best-performing calculator so it is accurate for people with MS.
How will it help people with MS?
If the researchers find current risk calculators work well, it will encourage their use in clinical practice. It’ll be reassuring for people with MS and their health care teams that their risk of vascular problems can be monitored effectively.
If the current risk calculators don’t perform well, improving the tools specifically for people with MS could lead to better and more personalised treatment of vascular co-morbidities. And this could potentially help to reduce the worsening of disability progression.
